Rude Awakening Archives: 11/28/06 - The Long View
By Bud Conrad I have been monitoring the big imbalances of our economic system to determine if we are heading toward a big economic convulsion that would change our investments and our lives. I have been evaluating long-term historical measures of prosperity and economic movement, comparing the last big depression to now to see if we face similar situations. Some of the similarities look dangerous, like the large overall indebtedness of then and now. 11/27/06 - Monday Mailbag
By Joel Bowman "But just be sure not to call after 5pm, your time," we informed a friend back in New York. "There is a five our time difference between us and we are only a guest on this end of the phone line." Similar instructions were sent to friends in California [8 hours behind] and Australia [8 hours ahead] who might have awoken our gracious hosts here in Scotland otherwise. Roaming from time zone to time zone can be mightily taxing on the average traveler's sleep patterns. This is why we prefer to just bring your Rude reader views from around the world together in one neatly bound Monday Mailbag edition...no jet lag necessary. 11/24/06 - A Dangerous Addiction
By Dr. Kurt Richebacher It has become customary in the United States to speak of
"asset-driven" economic growth. "Asset-driven" is, of
course, a euphemism for bubble-driven, because it requires
particularly large rises in asset prices. Many modern economists consider asset-driven growth a valid
alternative to the traditional growth pattern, nowadays
called "income-driven" economic growth.
11/22/06 - Grasshopper-Envy
By Chris Mayer
The housing bubble is in the midst of deflating. There is
no doubt now that the halcyon days of the housing boom are
over. New home construction tumbled in October -- hitting six-
year lows. Sales are slowing. Inventory continues to build.
Based on September's rates of sales, it would take more
than six months to sell off the existing new homes on the
market. That's just new homes. Never mind the existing
stock of older homes. Existing home inventories are up 70%
from the beginning of 2005, with nearly 4 million unsold
units.
11/21/06 - What We Don't Know
by Bill Bonner
We stand before you a profoundly ignorant man...What we
don't know is almost everything. We don't know which
investments will go up. We don't know what will happen in
the world. We don't know if global warming is a farce or a
fact. We don't know if Peak Oil is something to worry about
or something to ignore. As Donald Rumsfeld put it, there
are known unknowns; and there are unknown unknowns; and
then there are things about which we don't have a clue. 11/17/06 - The New Pharaohs
By Dan Denning When the ruthless Pharaoh Khufu commissioned the Great
Pyramids of Egypt, no one dared to ask why. The pharaoh had
the money and the power...and so three massive pyramids
emerged from the dessert sands near Cairo. A similar story is unfolding today in Dubai, and throughout
the Persian Gulf region. But the "new pharaohs" are
commissioning multi-billion dollar real estate developments
instead of pyramids.
11/16/06 - Going with the Grain
By Chris Mayer
I just recently read Marc Faber's October letter. Faber, as
you probably know, writes the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.
His contrarian financial views often appear in various
media outlets. His latest issue included an interesting little piece on
grains. Mark McLornan, of Agro Terra Ltd., wrote it. The
piece opens with a question that is right up my alley:
11/15/06 - The Moon Also Rises
By Eric J. Fry
Even if it is always darkest before the dawn, it is also
pretty dark around midnight. Differentiating between shades
of black is more guesswork than science. Alan Greenspan
says the dawn of recovering will soon pierce the darkness
enshrouding the U.S. housing market. But we aren't so sure.
We're still hunkering down for a long night.
11/10/06 - Barbarians at the Border
By Justice Litle The barbarians are amassing along the Canadian border. But
these barbarians don't wear bearskins and wield clubs. They
wear Armani and wield wads of cash. Foreign investors are
preparing to sweep into the beaten-down investment trust
sector, to plunder the valuables and return the booty to
their native lands. Canadians will not enjoy this
plundering very much. Individual investors, however, would
stand to benefit if they purchased selected investment
trusts before the barbarians arrived.
11/09/06 - Cleaning Up
By Eric J. Fry
"Dirty, insecure and expensive" are not merely the
adjectives that describe most of your California editor's
past girlfriends; they are also the adjectives that the
International Energy Agency (IEA) uses to describe the
current state of the world energy market. "The energy
future we are facing today is doomed to failure," warns
Claude Mandil, head of the IEA. All hope is not lost, however, the IEA assures, provided
that renewable energy sources furnish a growing share of
the world's energy needs.
11/08/06 - The Once and Future Planet Earth
By Byron W. King
You probably know that the world is running out of easily
accessible oil, which means that the price of the stuff
will be increasing dramatically in the coming years.
Painful as the economic future might be, the increasing
price of oil is probably a good thing in the long view.
Even if modern industrial societies were not exhausting the
Earth's inheritance of fossil fuels, mankind would require
an alternative energy source. A century of fossil fuel
consumption has contributed to the "global warming" effect
that threatens to lead the earth toward unknown, but
probably negative, climatic impacts. Increasingly,
therefore, alternative energy sources will become the ONLY
alternative. 11/07/06 - Time to Get Worried
By Byron W. King I have been studying in the field of geology for almost 35
years. I met M. King Hubbert [the original Peak Oil
theorist], and heard him give his Peak Oil brief, about 30
years ago when he gave the talk at Harvard. Later on, in
1978, my first boss at Gulf Oil Co. told me in no uncertain
terms that a big part of my job and career, if I kept on
working as an oil company geologist, would be "nursing some
great old oil fields through their phase of irreversible
decline." So I have been drinking this particular flavor of
Peak Oil Kool-Aid for a long, long time. And I know a lot
about Peak Oil, to include holding a respectful
appreciation for how much else there is to learn, and that
is one heck of a lot. 10/27/06 - Asset-Kicking Growth
By Chris Mayer What we have here is an asset story — another case in which you can buy
a bundle of attractive, cheap, hard-to-replicate assets all in one stock.
Unusual, in this case, is that these assets also come with a high-growth
kicker. The company is Inversiones y Representaciones SA (NYSE: IRS), which
means Investments and Representations in Spanish. In either language,
that's a mouthful. So investors simply call it IRSA.
10/26/06 - Smiling for Argentina, Part II
By Chris Mayer
Buenos Aires, Argentina. Travelers sometimes call it “the Paris
of South America,” for good reasons, which I’ll get to momentarily.
More importantly for investors, though, it is also a place where prime
waterfront real estate goes for prices only one-tenth of what comparable
properties go for in Europe and the U.S. There are reasons for that, too.
But I’ll make the case that they are not good reasons.
10/25/06 - Smiling for Argentina
By Bill Bonner
We haven't been to Argentina in many months...but we try to
keep up with what is going on down there. For example, yesterday, a friend sent a photo of a house
for sale. It is a beautiful place, in fashionable Palermo
Chico...with balconies outside, and attractive woodwork in
the interior...and about 3,000 square feet of space. A
similar house in Paris would cost $3 million or so. In
London or New York, you might spend $5 million or more. But
in Buenos Aires, the price is only $800,000.
10/24/06 - Another Nice Bottom
By Eric Roseman
Signs of a bottom in the energy complex are finally
arriving. Bruised and battered from a barrage of ruthless
profit-taking in September, the entire complex has been
mauled. Now it's time to buy the most profitable segment of
the energy bull market since 2002 – the oil services and
equipment stocks.
10/20/06 - Turning Caviar into Fake Crab
By Justice Litle Don't unload your oil stocks just yet!
A few months ago we posed the question "Does Peak Oil
Matter?" In other words, has global oil production actually
peaked? And if so, how should investors respond. We posed
this question in the context of the fact that North America
oil shale holds billions of barrels of "theoretically"
recoverable oil. Theoretically, therefore, global oil
production may not have peaked.
10/19/06 - Paper Wealth
By Chris Mayer
I spent some time in New York a couple of weeks ago to
attend the Grant's Investment Conference. These gatherings
always showcase some of the best investment minds in the
business, which is why I always try to attend. One of the
most engaging speakers at this particular conference
presented a very compelling case for buying beaten-down
Canadian paper stocks.
10/18/06 - Bonds Away!
By Eric J. Fry
"Oh wow! That's incredible!" we gasped to ourselves when we
first observed the squiggles on the chart below. Squiggles
on a graph rarely elicit an "Oh wow!" from your even-
tempered California editor. Typically, he reserves his "Oh
wows!" for animate, three-dimensional phenomena. But in
this particular case, he simply could not stifle his
amazement.
10/17/06 - Turning Air into Water
By Jonathan Kolber
New technology is about to make shortages of potable water
a thing of the past. I recently met with a representative
of the AirWater Corp. in California, and it's but one of a
collection of companies capable of, well, making water from
thin air. 10/13/06 - Water, Nukes and Catastrophe
By Dan Denning Is Kim Jong Il mad as a hatter or mad as a meat axe? The
question interests us here at the Old Hat Factory, where
the legacy of mercury-induced insanity seems to have
produced a tolerance for eccentric behavior. It doesn't
matter if Kim Jong Il is insane, delusional, or a shrewd
tyrant who chooses to dress in drab jump suits. 10/12/06 - Nice Bottoms
By Eric J. Fry Some bottoms are better than others. Some lead to
substantial capital gains; others merely deceive investors
and lead straight to capital losses...because they're not
really bottoms at all. They just appear to be. 10/10/06 - Behold! The Housing Bust!
By Mike "Mish" Shedlock The U.S. housing bust is actually much more advanced than
my "Autumn 2006" arrow suggests. That's because many
homebuilders have been reporting "full-price sales," while
giving away hundreds of thousands of dollars in incentives,
new cars, vacations, upgrades, reduced interest rates,
etc., and chalking those expenses up as "advertising
costs." Mammoth price reductions from every national
builder have been going on since the beginning of the year.
Palm Coast Florida 10/07/06 - Bankers Gone Wild
By Bill Bonner That a public spectacle begins as a fraud, progress into
farce and ends in disaster is one of our daily dictums
here. We have spent so much time and so many pages
describing the lies behind the housing bubble that our
readers must be tired of hearing about it. So, now we move
on - to the farce.
10/05/06 - High-Yield Slumber
By Eric J. Fry Bonds are the new "black." Suddenly, these boring financial
assets have become sizzling hot portfolio accessories.
Everybody wants to be seen with bonds, especially long-
dated Treasury bonds. But we suspect this investment
fashion is about to become "so last season."
10/04/06 - Stimulating Amanda
By Jonathan Kolber
A doll called Amazing Amanda is causing quite a stir in the
toy industry. It does such a good job of synthesizing human
behavior that children are treating it as if the doll were
alive. Amazing Amanda can "listen, speak and show emotion." Its
reliance on a combination of technologies for speech-
recognition, radio frequency tags and scanners, and facial
robotics is causing quite a stir.
10/03/06 - Buy Spam, Sell Frappuccinos
By Eric J. Fry
"Buy Hormel, Sell Starbucks," suggests Stephanie Pomboy,
the freethinking mind behind MacroMavens, an elite Wall
Street research service. If the free-spending – but overly
indebted – American consumer begins to spend a little less
freely, which industries would feel the pinch? And which would
benefit?
09/29/06 - All Aboard!
By Dan Amoss "The essence of good business is knowing when to step on a
train and when to step off," billionaire investor, Richard
Rainwater, once explained. Over the last few weeks, many
panicked investors have been jumping from the runaway
energy stock train as it hurtled toward a seemingly certain
crash. But we think it's time to board this train for the
long-haul, and to find a seat in the boxcar that Rainwater
controls: ENSCO International (NYSE: ESV)
09/28/06 - Buy Natural Gas Now
By Justice Litle
The Farmer's Almanac says we can expect bitter cold and
plenty of snow for the winter ahead. Are you ready? What
about your portfolio? If you heat your home with natural gas, securing your
winter needs at today's cheap prices might not be a bad
idea. Likewise, if you're hoping to add some fire to your
portfolio in the months ahead, investing in natural gas
stocks at today's cheap prices might not be a bad idea.
09/27/06 - America Goes Thirsty
By Chris Mayer
Record high temperatures took their toll across America
this summer. More than 60% of the United States was
abnormally dry. Sweltering, record-setting heat stretched
from the woodlands of Georgia to the suburbs of Arizona,
from the "Big Sky" country of Montana to the dairy farms of
Wisconsin.
09/26/06 - Rude Awakening Ahead
By Dr. Kurt Richebacher
A recession and a bear market in asset prices are
inevitable for the U.S. economy. Recent economic data leave
no doubt that both are on their way. What keeps triggering
rebounds in U.S. stocks is only the "bad news is good news"
syndrome, reflecting the hope that economic weakness will
stop the Fed's rate hikes. 09/22/06 - Nine reasons why you should never buy a château in France
by Bill Bonner I bought my first château during the early years of the
Clinton administration. "It never rains in the summertime,"
said one of the Pierres. "And, no, the roof doesn't leak."
One day in July, we found that he lied twice. But this was
the just the beginning of the adventure. Nothing is ever
quite as straight in France as we Anglo-Saxons imagine—
neither the people, nor the laws, nor the châteaux walls.
There is always a little "play" in them.
09/21/06 - Popping Corn
By Kevin Kerr
The closest most people get to trading grains is buying a
box of Shredded Wheat. It's too bad really, because the
grain futures markets often provide excellent trading
opportunities. At this very moment, for example, buying
corn futures – or call options on corn futures – looks like
a very good risk/reward trade. I'll tell you why in just a
moment.
09/20/06 - Time to Buy, Gabriel?
Louis James
For some time now we have been following Gabriel Resources
(T.GBU), a company there is much to like about. For starters,
there is the sheer size of the company's Rosia Montana mega-deposit
in Romania (more on that in a moment). Then there is the fact that
Gabriel has a new and very determined management team that is taking
a hands-on approach to shepherding the deposit toward production. 09/15/06 - Front-Page News...Almost
By Chris Mayer The global water crisis is not a front page story...yet.
But over the coming months, I expect this "middle-page"
story to make its way to the front of newspapers worldwide.
Already, "Water crisis" articles are appearing with
increasing frequency...
09/14/06 - The Commodity Comeback
By Stephen Belmont
Is the bull market in commodities finished? Given all the
glowing red minus signs that have been crowding commodity-
trading screens for the past three weeks, you would
certainly think so. Crude oil has declined 18% from its
July 14th closing high of $77.95 per barrel. Unleaded
gasoline has tumbled more than 30%. Grains and soft
commodities have stalled, while precious metals have
slumped toward their lows for the year.
09/13/06 - Crude Behavior
By Eric J. Fry
"Siphon the gasoline from your tanks!...Sell the stuff for
whatever you can get and buy it cheaper next week!" ...Or, at least, that's what the financial markets seem to
be saying. The wholesale price of unleaded gasoline is
crashing...and eager buyers have become as scarce as Swiss
baseball players. The shares of oil-refining companies are
also crashing...and eager buyers have become as scarce
as...well...Puerto Rican yodelers.
09/12/06 - Bad News...No Hurricanes
By Eric J. Fry
$75 crude oil seemed relatively cheap...as long as
terrorists were bombing oil pipelines in Nigeria, British
Petroleum was shutting down rusting pipeline in Alaska,
Israel and Hezbollah were lobbing missiles at each other,
Iran was insisting on enriching uranium, oil producers were
struggling to satisfy surging global demand and hurricanes
were threatening to disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of
Mexico. 09/08/06 - When Competence is Incompetent
by Doug Casey The more companies you evaluate, the more chaff you have to
sift through. On any given day I come across all types,
from well-meaning but generally inept geologists to out-
and-out hucksters who spin pirate-esque yarns of
unimaginable treasures and then laugh all the way to their
Mexican beach homes, bought and paid for with millions
lifted off of feckless investors. Surprisingly, however, scam artists are not an investor's
biggest worry. Far more dangerous - and numerous - are the
"competent" professionals who swell the middle of the
industry's bell curve.
09/07/06 - Target Practice, Part II
By Eric J. Fry
Here at Rude Awakening Headquarters, we have no idea if the
U.S. dollar's value will decline, we only know that it
should...or, at least, that it could. Nothing says
"currency debasement" quite like $76 trillion of debt. The
United States owes so much money to so many people that
most of the world has simply stopped counting. "We're the
richest country in the world," we continue to tell
ourselves, while we borrow from third-world nations to
finance our first-world consumption. There is nothing
necessarily wrong with this bizarre arrangement, but there
is nothing intuitively right about it either.
09/06/06 - Target Practice
By Eric J. Fry
The price of Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) touched an all-time
high yesterday; the price of gold did not. Maybe the price
of Kinross has more to do with trends in the gold-mining
industry than with trends in the gold trading pits. 08/25/06 - Down on Downey
By Eric J. Fry "We conclude that a decline in house prices is underway,"
Grant's Interest Rate Observer recently remarked. "If the
house market, like the stock market, were mean-reverting,
the sell-off could carry a far way. A return to the post-
1968 trend line would imply a drop of 22%. Which, of
course, for these real estate-centric United States, would
imply disaster.
08/24/06 - A Big Busted Market?
By Eric J. Fry
Imagine a country of 10 million citizens. Imagine it is one
of the wealthiest countries in the world. And yet, it is a
country where only 14% of the population can afford to buy
the median-priced home. The reader requires no imagination...This "country" is Los
Angeles County, the least affordable metropolis in the
nation, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
Opportunity Index.
08/23/06 - Sun, Wind and Surf
By Justice Litle
Sun, wind and surf...These essential elements of a beach-
dweller's lifestyle are quickly becoming essential elements
of energy independence.
The transition from traditional fossil fuels to alternative
energies will not be seamless and trouble-free, but it
could be very profitable for investors who monitor the
exciting world of emerging energy technologies.
08/22/06 - The Housing Bust Begins
By Eric J. Fry
"We've had the biggest housing boom in the history of this
country," explains Yale professor, Robert Shiller. "That
can't go on forever...I'm thinking that this boom is so
much bigger, that we will see a substantial fall that will
affect the country overall...We're not [automatically]
bound for an enormous decline, but I think it's likely."
08/18/06 - A Fascinating Fluke
By Eric J. Fry We are not sure that it means anything, but neither are we
sure that it doesn't: The XOI Index of oil stocks is
falling like a cradle from a treetop. The fact that oil stocks would drop is, in itself, not very
remarkable. But the TIMING of the current drop may be.
08/17/06 - Step into Liquid
By Eric J. Fry
By 2030, America may have exhausted its supply of dollars and credit -
and 19-year olds - to conduct its wars. But it may not have exhausted its
supply of domestic energy sources. If coal-to-liquids technologies fulfill
their early promise, the U.S. Air Force will have more-than-enough fuel to
power its jets, even if it has less-than-enough pilots to fly them.
08/15/06 - The Crumbling Empire
By Eric J. Fry
"It's pretty basic; if you neglect anything long enough, it
simply falls apart," observes Kevin Kerr, the mind behind
the Resource Trader Alert. "One need only look at my 1996
Jeep Cherokee to see what years of use and minimal care
will yield. The British Petroleum pipeline shutdown was
just the beginning of the coming infrastructure meltdown
here in the U.S." 08/11/06 - The Peter Lynch of Britain
By Christopher Mayer There's a very successful investor in England you've
probably never heard of. Yet he's produced a 20% compound
annual return for more than a quarter of a century,
managing one of the largest mutual funds in the United
Kingdom. His sustained record of excellence earns him a
number of superlatives, as well as the sobriquet "the Peter
Lynch of Britain."
08/10/06 - Corn...That's Hot
By Eric J. Fry
Ethanol is hot; corn is not...but it is getting warmer.
Archer Daniels Midland's stock is hot; Corn Products
International's is not...but it is getting warmer. If
ethanol remains a hot commodity, corn should not remain a
lukewarm commodity...and Corn Products International (NYSE:
CPO) should not remain a lukewarm stock.
08/08/06 - The New Moonshine
By Chris Mayer
It's happening across the vast belly of the United States,
in little towns like Coon Rapids, Iowa, and Plainview, Neb.
Across the breadbasket states, in Indiana, the Dakotas, and
Minnesota: Farmers are gearing up to produce more and more
of the new moonshine. But unlike the old bootleggers' white lightning, produced
from hidden stills under the pale glow of the moon, this
shine is legal — and you don't drink it. Your car does. 08/04/06 - Solar Tower of Power
By Jonathan Kolber Imagine a huge funnel. It's almost flat at the edges and
gradually curves over a distance of several miles until it
reaches a tube in the center. The tube extends quite a
distance down from the rest of the funnel. The tube is like
a 3,280-feet long chimney. Now turn that funnel upside down
and plant it in the Australian desert.
08/03/06 - ...Found in Vancouver, Part II
by Eric J. Fry
"Buy anything that can grow wheat on it," Eric Roseman
urged the attendees of last week's Agora Wealth Symposium
in Vancouver, "Wheat is in a long-term bull market. I'm
bullish on grains. I'm bullish on agriculture. I'm bullish
on ethanol."
07/31/06 - ...Found in Vancouver, Part I
By Eric J. Fry
Chris Mayer is not so sure that the entire American Empire
is in decay, but he is very sure that the empire's physical
infrastructure is breaking down. Therein lies an investment
opportunity.
08/01/06 - This is the End
By Rick Barnard
Today, the last day of the Agora Financial Wealth
Symposium, Bill Bonner took the stage to discuss "the end"
- the end of the dollar, the end of the housing bubble, the
end of the U.S. Empire, the end of Western civilization...
and the end of all life on Earth. I'll simply discuss the end
of the conference. 07/28/06 - Lost in Laguna
By Eric J. Fry Short-term, reactive trading is the domain – and the
downfall – of hedge fund managers. Long-term investors, who
enjoy the twin liberties of time and anonymity, can afford
to ignore short-term sell-offs...or better still, buy into
them.
07/26/06 - The Sleuth...Silently Beating the Blue Chips
By Greg Guenthner
Clean water is one of the most important public health
issues affecting the world today. It's something most
Americans don't notice, because for our entire lives, clean
water has been delivered directly to our homes and dirty
water has been pumped out.
07/21/06 - Rising Global Interest Rates Point to Good Times for Gold
By Doug Casey & Bud Conrad Interest rates around the globe are going up because
inflation and default risk are going up. Lenders want to be
compensated for the chance they might not be repaid. When
the currency seems to lose purchasing power, lenders want
to recover the loss by collecting more interest, and
borrowers are willing to pay it, in anticipation of even
more currency depreciation.
07/20/06 - Wall Street's Woeful Wisdom
By Eric J. Fry
China is exploding; the Middle East is imploding; oil must
be a "buy"...at least on dips. And if oil is a "buy," oil
stocks must also be a "buy"...at least on dips.
Unfortunately, this sort of deductive reasoning has
produced lackluster results of late. Near-record oil prices
have failed to inspire much enthusiasm for oil stocks.
07/18/06 - Trash Talk
By Justice Litle
Remember the classic '80s movie Back to the Future, in
which Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) traveled to 1955 in a
time machine built by Doc Brown (Christopher Lloyd)? The
initial version of the time machine, a souped-up DeLorean,
was fueled by plutonium. At the end of the movie, Doc Brown
returns from the future with a new-and-improved version
that runs on garbage. 07/14/06 - Explosive Opportunities
By Justice Litle Now that North Korea is firing test missiles into the Sea
of Japan, and Israel is firing real missiles into Lebanon,
very few investors are eager to purchase stocks. Even gold
and oil stocks are finding few buyers. But these short-term
(we hope) anxieties are creating opportunities for long-
term investors, including the long-term investors that run
some of the world's largest natural resource companies.
07/13/06 - The Way to San Jose
By Chris Mayer
When California became a state in 1850, San Jose became its
first capital. As the city flourished, its demand for water grew as well.
Sensing an opportunity, an enterprising individual by the
name of Donald McKenzie assembled some investors to acquire
the rights to supply the city with water. The year was
1866...
07/12/06 - Nodding Donkeys
By Eric J. Fry
Oil stocks dip and oil stocks rise...just like "nodding
donkeys" in a Texas oil field. Unfortunately for investors,
oil stocks do not bob up and down as rhythmically and
predictably as an oil well pump. Instead, these stocks rise
and fall according to the unpredictable whims of investor
sentiment. The resulting volatility rarely produces smiles,
but it does produce opportunity.
07/07/06 - The Pause That Distresses
By Eric J. Fry "Oil stocks are cheap," the Rude Awakening column of June
20th observed. Oil stocks are less cheap now. The XOI Index
of oil and gas stocks has rocketed 15% since that column
appeared. In response to this dazzling rally, long-term investors in
oil stocks should probably pat themselves on the back and
take a long nap. But short-term traders might want to
consider a different course of action.
07/06/06 - Water Stocks, Part II
Edited by Eric J. Fry
"Water shortage? What water shortage?" most Americans must
ask themselves, whenever they gaze at the sprinklers that
douse every blade of grass in their backyards. Most of the rest of humanity must ask themselves a very
different question: "Where the heck can we find some clean
water?"
07/05/06 - Water Stocks, Part I
Edited by Eric J Fry
A few days back, we asked you, the Rude Awakening faithful,
to identify your favorite water stocks. As usual, you
responded with some terrific ideas. You identified a water
treatment company in Singapore, an industrial giant in
Germany and an up-and-coming renewable energy company in
Southern California. 06/30/06 - Blue Gold
By Chris Mayer A gallon of crude oil costs $1.50. A gallon of Evian costs
$12.00. This simple observation led one successful investor
to assert that oil is undervalued. We see things a little differently...Oil may be
undervalued, but NOT relative to drinking water. In fact,
the truth is exactly the opposite.
06/28/06 - Bear Market Bounce
By Jeff Clark
In a bear market there's no such thing as a long-term hold.
Typical activity in a bear market consists of day after day
of tedious "nickel-and-dime" type declines, followed by
blistering one- or two-day rallies, followed again by a
series of tedious declines. Indeed it seems the purpose of a bear market is to not only
punish the bulls, but also to extract a pound of flesh from
the bears who hang around too long.
06/27/06 - Dirty Water, Clean Profits
By Eric J. Fry
Dirty water is a worldwide tragedy. Clean water is a
worldwide investment opportunity. Half of all hospital beds in the world are occupied by
someone suffering from a water-related illness. In the
developing nations, 80% of all diseases stem from
consumption of and exposure to, unsafe water. There is no shortage of water on this big orb of ours, but
there is an acute shortage of CLEAN water...and the human
toll is alarming.
06/23/06 - L.A. Confidential
By Chris Mayer Most investors like to talk about the stocks they're
buying. Carlo Cannell likes to talk about the stocks he
isn't buying. Cannell is a very successful hedge fund
manager, whose main fund, Tonga Partners, has earned 25%
annually since 1992.
06/22/06 - "Dhando!"
By Chris Mayer
This past month, I journeyed to Los Angeles for a unique
kind of conference. It was called the Value Investing
Congress. The gathering featured some of the most successful
cheapskates of the investment world. These are the guys who
don't like to pay much for anything, who are usually
bearish on most things and who like digging around in the
dumpsters and sewers of finance, trolling around for
overlooked goodies. Basically, a variety of top-performing
investors offered up insights and ideas over two days to a
packed audience.
06/21/06 - Ethanol Glut...on Wall Street
By Greg Guenthner
Ethanol is a rock star on Wall Street, and every brokerage
firm knows it. That's why the pin-stripped hucksters at
Wall and Broad have been dressing up lots of ethanol
companies as hot new IPOs to sell to an adoring public.
06/20/06 - Advantage: Little Guy
By Eric J. Fry
Skittish hedge funds are selling oil stocks; intrepid
individuals should be buying them. The S&P Supercomposite Integrated Oil and Gas Index fell
nearly 3% yesterday, which means that it hasn't gained any
ground whatsoever since February 24, 2005 – a span of 16
months. Over the identical 16-month span, the price of
crude oil has jumped 34% - From $51.39 a barrel to $69.00 –
while unleaded gasoline has soared more than 50%. 06/16/06 - Where There's Smoke...
By Sala Kannan Indonesian households spend more on tobacco than they do on
clothing and meat. This bizarre fact does not automatically
mean that Indonesian cigarette stocks are a great
investment, but neither does it mean that they are not.
So I flew to Indonesia to find out for myself.
06/15/06 - Parched!
By Eric J Fry
We have no idea if these water stocks are worth their
premium pricing. But we have some idea that business will
be booming for a very long time in the U.S. water
infrastructure industry.
06/13/06 - Helplessly Hoping
By Eric J. Fry
The financial markets are sadistic and heartless...like the
underside of a boy's sneaker. That's why we investors
sometimes feel like helpless ants – scurrying for cover to
avoid the fatal thud of large capital losses. Occasionally,
we find our ant hole before the boy's sneaker finds us.
Other times, we are not so lucky. 06/09/06 - Hurricane Hedging
By Kevin Kerr Hurricanes destroy almost everything in their path...except
call options on commodity futures. The connection between hurricanes and commodity options
isn't precise or automatic, of course. But the "ill wind"
of a category-4 hurricane often blows some good toward
futures markets like natural gas, orange juice and sugar.
Last year's disastrous Gulf Coast storms triggered huge
price spikes in several commodity markets.
06/08/06 - Wheat, and Other Sexy Investments
By Dan Denning
"Why is it that the Asian central bankers continue to
support the dollar, the American economy, and the huge
American structural deficits?" I recently asked Dr. Marc
Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. "Don't
they have better places to invest their money, like their
own economies, for example?"
06/06/06 - The Newest Old Thing, Part II
By Dan Denning
Coal is plentiful...Coal is cheap...Coal is dirty.
Select the one attribute that does not conform with the
other two. If you selected "coal is dirty," you chose the correct
response. But what if coal were cleaner? It would still be
plentiful, of course. But it probably wouldn't be as cheap.
That's the reason we like coal. A new generation of "clean-
coal" technologies could increase demand for this filthy
fossil fuel, thereby causing its price to rise...perhaps
dramatically.
06/02/06 - The Newest Old Thing
By Dan Denning The United States military is preparing for a world of
disappearing oil supplies...Investors might want to pursue
a similar strategy.
06/01/06 - The Great Conceit
By Bill Bonner & Addison Wiggin
While foreigners got richer, U.S. passport holders became
delusional. This gargantuan conceit allowed Americans to
believe that they could get richer without saving or
earning more money. Household debt soared to $10 trillion—
115 percent of earnings. After World War II, it was only 20
percent of earnings. Indeed, Americans came to think that
the more they borrowed and spent, the richer they got. 05/25/06 - Homeless
By Eric J Fry Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan both agree that the housing
boom is over and that it will begin an "orderly" decline.
We agree that the housing boom is over and that home prices
will begin to decline, but we aren't so sure about the
"orderly" part. 05/19/06 - Gold Over $700: Too Much, Too Fast?
By Doug Casey Recently there was much ado about an ambitious Harvard
student (a redundancy) who got caught with someone else's
prose on her hands.
05/18/06 - I-Been-Hosed
By Eric J. Fry
"Out here in the real world," observed the Rude Awakening
column of November 8, 2005, "we refer to the fruits of our
labor as 'earnings.' But up on Capitol Hill, politicians
recognize these same fruits as 'taxable gains.' We believe
we deserve our earnings, by virtue of the fact that we
worked hard to produce them. But the politicians believe
that they deserve our earnings, by virtue of the fact that
they have already spent them.
05/17/06 - Running Naked
By Eric J. Fry
"While awaiting that delightful Armageddon that might
propel gold to $2,000 or $3,000 an ounce," your editors
observed in last Thursday's column, "we gold bulls will
certainly endure a large number of 'down days.' We will
suffer through harrowing price declines that will produce
large mark-to-market losses...and anguish."
05/16/06 - Your Secret Connection to the Insiders
By James Boric
Imagine if every time you bought a stock, you knew exactly
what the company's CEO, CFO, board of directors and even
its legal team thought about its future. If you had this
kind of "insider information" you'd be rich, right? You'd
always know what to invest in and when. There is no limit
to the money you could make. 05/12/06 - "A Really High Gold Price"
By Eric J. Fry On Tuesday, the Ben Bernanke hiked short-term interest
rates to 5% - the 16th straight quarter-point increase –
and promised to continue hiking rates "if the data
warrant." Over the ensuing three days, global stock markets
have stumbled, the dollar has dropped 2% and the gold price
has skyrocketed more than $50.
05/11/06 - The Road to Gold $3,000
By Eric J. Fry
While awaiting that delightful Armageddon that might propel
gold to $2,000 or $3,000 an ounce, we gold bulls will
certainly endure a large number of "down days." We will
suffer through harrowing price declines that will produce
large mark-to-market losses...and anguish.
05/10/06 - The Seven-Year Switch
By Eric J. Fry
Americans love an underdog. We love pulling for the little
guy. In fact, we've been pulling for the little guys for
seven straight years...and for seven straight years they've
been throttling the big guys. So maybe it's time to bet on
the new underdogs: the big guys.
05/09/06 - The Thin Gold Line
By Justice Litle
A very thin line separates inflation from deflation,
perhaps as thin as the line that separates hate from
love...or as thin as the line that separates gold-hating
from gold-loving. 05/05/06 - Dollars Make Pennies
By Eric J. Fry The value of a U.S. dollar has tumbled 7% so far this year,
but the value of a penny has soared 70%. A couple of recent
European news stories shed some light on this monetary
mystery...and on why the value of dollars and pennies might
continue to diverge.
03/05/06 - Oil Correction
By Eric J. Fry
"Crude oil has become one very hot commodity...enticingly
hot," we remarked last Tuesday, while suggesting that
investors "steer clear" of this market for a while.
Immediately after our column appeared, the price of crude
oil took investors on a very wild ride – falling three
dollars over the final three trading days of last week,
then jumping four dollars over the first three trading days
of this week...Voila! A one-dollar gain!
05/02/06 - Sell!
By Eric J. Fry
The month of May has arrived, which means it's time to pay
homage to one of our favorite Wall Street adages: "Sell in
May and go away.'' For more than 50 years, according to the
Stock Trader's Almanac, U.S. stocks have performed poorly
between the beginning of May and the end of October.
04/28/06 - Not-So-Sweet 16
Eric J. Fry Bill Miller's mutual fund has topped the returns of the S&P
500 Index for 15 straight years...But year sixteen might be
tricky. Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) has the distinction
of being the only equity fund in the U.S. to beat the S&P
500 for the last 15 consecutive years. And over those 15
glorious years, the fund posted a cumulative return of
about 850% - more than double the return of the S&P 500
over the same time frame.
04/26/06 - Trash Talk
By John Mauldin
Today we deal with trash – not just the problem with "trash
investments" themselves, but with investors' mad dash
towards them! In a recent research note, James Montier
walks us through the valuation of different equity classes
and the investor sentiment currently surrounding them.
04/25/06 - Flirting with a Hottie
By Eric J. Fry
The crude oil market is throwing off more mixed messages
than a budding romance. Crude's alluring price profile
seems to be saying, "Come and get it." But at the same
time, this lovely creature seems to be whispering in our
ears, "I think it's time for you to go."
04/21/06 - Lock and Load
By James Boric "Insiders might sell their shares for any number of
reasons," Peter Lynch, the longtime Magellan Fund
manager, famously declared, "but they buy them for only
one: They think the price will rise." Applying Lynch's reasoning, Tweedy Browne (one of the
most respected small-cap money managers on Wall Street)
found that tracking insider buying is one of the five most
proven ways to make money in the stock market. I agree.
04/20/06 - Blowoff!
By Eric J. Fry
The $3.00 copper price is a freak. It is the love-child of
commodity fund money and wonton speculation. There is just something about this creature that isn't
quite right. 16 out of the last 20 trading days, the copper
price has advanced, gaining 30% in the process...This just
doesn't feel right, especially when the U.S. housing market
is slowing noticeably.
04/18/06 - Geek Power
By Eric J Fry
It seems that the prospects for cleaning up by cleaning
up have never been better. That's because alternative
energy technologies have yet to capture any meaningful
energy-source market share. Renewable energy accounts for
less than six percent of all primary fuel used by the IEA's
26-member nations, with hydropower accounting for 2
percent, combustibles such as ethanol 2.9 percent and wind
0.6 percent.
04/13/06 - Wading into Gold
By Justice Litle If a stock market correction is coming soon in the U.S.,
one Outstanding Investments subscriber recently inquired,
will foreign stocks also suffer badly? And how will the
stocks of natural resource companies fare? 04/11/06 - Six-Dollar Gasoline
By Kevin Kerr Hurricanes, Terrorism, Hugo Chavez or Murphy's Law. One way
or another gasoline prices are heading much higher this
summer. Six dollars a gallon is not out of the question in
some parts of the U.S. So it might be a good time to buy
call options on gasoline or to sell your Escalade...or
both.
04/07/06 - America's Sunken Treasure
By Dan Denning Oil-drilling companies are keeping very busy these days,
but they are about to get a lot busier. There is a vast
expanse of offshore U.S. territory that is off-limits to
U.S. energy companies. But this new frontier might be
hosting oil exploration very soon.
04/06/06 - Film Noir
By Eric J. Fry
If today's stock market were a feature film, it would be a
light-hearted romantic comedy. Warm smiles and laughter
would arrive frequently and predictably. And even during
those moments when the central characters might encounter
short-term disappointments, the film's happy ending would
never be in doubt.
04/04/06 - The Instability of Stability
By Eric J. Fry
Stability is Unstable, Jim Grant asserts. "Low volatility
is, ultimately, the source of high volatility," he writes.
"Tranquility emboldens investors, speculators and traders
to take more risk and they would otherwise do. Then
something from the blue – say, a Russian default – shatters
the peace, and the leveraged and overextended operators
trip over themselves trying to raise cash, even those
operators whose resumes include the Nobel Prize in
economics..."
03/31/06 - The ETFs are Coming!
By Justice Litle If Paul Revere were living today, and if he were a
passionate investor, he might well ride through the
corridors of Wall Street, shouting: "The ETFs are Coming!
The ETFs are Coming!" 03/29/06 - A Public Service...or Disservice
By Eric J. Fry 22-year highs in silver; 24-year highs in sugar; 25-year
highs in gold; 26-year highs in platinum; all-time highs in
copper, crude oil and natural gas...Welcome to the
commodity markets of 2005-06. 03/28/06 - Sugar on Top
by Chris Mayer Brazil uses part of its sugar output for ethanol, more so
when the price of gasoline is high. That sort of shift has
a big impact on the sugar markets, as ethanol production
consumes more and more sugar. Current forecasts hold that
about 80% of Brazil's output will wind up in Brazilian
cars. 03/23/06 - "Green is Green," Part II
By Justice Litle For the patient investor, the ultimate payoff
should come in the form of both accelerated earnings growth
and a "perception premium" that kicks in when Wall Street
sees the beauty of "green is green." 03/22/06 - "Green is Green"
By Justice Litle As super-major oil
companies like Exxon struggle to replace their oil reserves
at a reasonable cost, the demand for alternative energy and
clean technology will only grow stronger. Furthermore, due
to the growing anxiety about global air quality, clean
energy sources seem certain to steal market share from
fossil fuels. 03/21/06 - Blood, Guts and Feathers, Part II
By Eric J. Fry Money doesn't grow on trees, but diesel fuel does...sort
of, which partly explains the growing popularity of bio-
diesel. If the world can "grow" its fuel instead of sucking
it our of the ocean floor, the theory goes, we could
produce a "renewable" supply. What's more, bio-diesel is
much cleaner than most competing forms of fuel. These two
happy thoughts, combined with "green legislation,"
government subsidies and, of course, a profit motive, are
powering a worldwide effort to ramp up bio-diesel
production. 03/17/06 - Blood, Guts and Feathers
by Eric J. Fry There is no perfect or complete substitute for crude oil. Nevertheless,
there are a growing number of imperfect and incomplete
substitutes – many of which may provide enormous investment
potential for forward-looking investors. 03/16/06 - Life After Oil, The Final Chapter
Edited by Eric J. Fry $60 crude oil – a phenomenon that has yet to celebrate its
first birthday – is already altering the energy landscape.
It is unleashing a sweeping global pursuit for viable
alternatives. This pursuit is inspiring groundbreaking
research and innovation – a fact that will certainly yield
a broad array of "alternative energy" sources and
technologies. 03/15/06 - Life After Oil, Part II
Edited by Eric J. Fry The quest for alternative energy sources, therefore, has
gained increasing urgency. This quest is no longer the
exclusive domain of science geeks and "granola heads."
That's because $60 crude oil has contributed a tangible
profit motive to the search for viable alternatives. 03/14/06 - Life After Oil
Edited Eric J. Fry We asked, you responded...A few days ago, we kicked off the third-ever
"Rude Awakening Group Research Project" by asking all "Rude"
readers worldwide to divulge their favorite alternative
energy stocks. 03/10/06 - Crazy Talk, Part II
By Dan Denning Throughout the 20th century, America benefited
disproportionately from innumerable technological
breakthroughs, not the least of these being nuclear
weaponry. Not surprisingly, the U.S. economy flourished
throughout most of the century. 03/09/06 -Crazy Talk
By Dan Denning A lot of people would like to dismiss Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
as a lunatic, as if that saves us the trouble of having to
figure out what to do with the current president of Iran
and his seemingly unstoppable nuclear program. Ahmadinejad
has certainly said the type of things that circumspect
world leaders try to avoid — namely that Israel should be
wiped off the map or moved to Alaska and that the Holocaust
may not have happened and that Iran could choose to use oil
as a weapon if the West tries to impose sanctions. 03/08/06 - Objects in Motion
By Eric J. Fry "An object in motion tends to stay in motion, unless acted
upon by an opposing force," Sir Isaac Newton theorized more
than 300 years ago...A similar tendency seems to operate in
the financial markets. 03/07/06 - Let the Hoarding Begin...
By Eric J. Fry If you buy an ounce of gold today, you might regret it
tomorrow. But if you don't buy an ounce of gold today, you
might regret it two years from now...if not sooner. 03/03/06 - Sell Stocks, Buy Gas
By Eric J. Fry Whenever you chat with Jay Shartsis, you get the feeling
that his mind contains more statistics than the Major
League Baseball database. But Shartsis doesn't track "most
hits by a lefty third-baseman during a three-night series
on the road." He tracks financial market statistics,
especially the sorts of statistics that indicate short-term
trends. At the moment, some of the financial market stats
that Shartis tracks are suggesting that the U.S. stock
market will soon fall, while natural gas will soon rally. 03/01/06 - Doing Drugs, Part II
By Eric J Fry So what are some of the hottest trends in
biotech right now? In other words, what trends out there do
you see as the most important developments or opportunities
for investors over the next few years?
02/28/06 - Doing Drugs
By Eric J Fry David Lashmet is an unusual guy…who produces an unusual product.
Lashmet is not the sort of unusual guy that knits booties for Basset
Hounds. Rather, Lashmet is unusually diligent, hence the name of the
investment research product that he produces: Diligence.
02/24/06 - Argentina vs. Uruguay
by Maria Reynolds Let's start with the basics: Argentina and Uruguay are in
the southern part of South America, an eight- to 10-hour
direct flight from the U.S. The people of both countries are
friendly and welcoming to foreigners, the official language of
both countries is Spanish, and both Argentina and Uruguay
are an excellent value compared with the U.S. and most
other European and Latin American countries.
02/23/06 -A World In Debt
Addison Wiggin
In his bestseller, Running on Empty, former Republican
operative Pete Peterson attempted to gauge the difficulty
of even determining the burden we've now placed on future
generations. "Estimates vary," Peterson points out,
"depending on methodology, but the numbers are all vast."
02/22/06 - Australian Money Trees, Part II
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Remember Otto von Bismarck: "Investing in paper securities
was a fine and quick way to get richer, but the repository
of true wealth should be land on which you could grow
trees." With this company, that's exactly what we get.
02/21/06 - Australian Money Trees
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Cheap timberland may be the world's best long-term
investment. Otto von Bismarck figured that out more than
100 years ago. His investment advisor, Gerson Bleichroder,
did a fantastic job managing Bismarck's investments,
delivering Bismarck about 10% a year over 25 years – in a
time of no inflation.
02/17/06 - The Unsexy Dollar
Dan Denning The TIC data confirmed my grim expectation: foreign demand
for dollar assets continues to wane. Net foreign purchases
of long-term U.S. securities fell 38% from November to
December. But that's not the most alarming number.
02/16/06 - The "Other" Commodities
By Eric J Fry
Some commodity shares are more overvalued (or less
undervalued) than others. That's because the supply/demand
factors influencing the price of crude oil, for example,
are not identical to those influencing the price of
soybeans.
02/14/06 - Attention!...Deficit-Disorder
By Dan Denning
This week's most valuable investment insight will NOT issue
from the mouth of Ben Bernanke, the brand new Chairman of
the Federal Reserve. But the week's most valuable insight
might spring from the pages of a bland report from the U.S.
Department of Treasury.
02/10/06 - When Trash Becomes Treasure
By Chris Mayer Investment opportunity dwells among the dispossessed. It
resides among the orphaned and scorned investment sectors
of Wall Street...I learned this lesson anew at last week's
9th Annual Columbia Investment Management at New York's
Columbia University. 02/09/06 -If You Give an Investor a Cookie...
By Chris Mayer A-plus students are self-disciplined, long-term
planners...so are A-plus investors.When a couple of
researchers from the University of Pennsylvania conducted a
recent two-year study of 8th graders, they expected to find
a very close connection between high IQs and good
grades...Not so! 02/07/06 - "Free Diving" Isn't Free
By Eric J. Fry On October 12, 2002, a beautiful, 28-year old French woman
named Audrey Mestre attempted a record-setting "no limits"
free dive to a depth of 561 feet. She succeeded in diving
to 561 feet, but not in re-surfacing alive. Today, many
investors are diving headlong into high-risk stocks and
bonds...and we would not be surprised if these "no limits"
investment plunges also end badly 02/03/06 - When Gold is Google
By Eric J. Fry Your editor abhors volatility...both in the realm of
investment and in the realm of love. He relishes steady
returns from the former and mellow evenings from the
latter. He would gladly forgo the ecstasy of "higher highs"
to be spared the agony of "lower lows." Volatility presents
a dicey risk-reward proposition: The anxiety it imposes is
certain; the reward it promises is not...
02/02/06 - Sell Homebuilding Stocks...in May
By Eric J. Fry America's rollicking housing boom appears to be winding
down...but it may not be over just yet. So, to those folks
who might be itching to short the housing stocks, we'd
offer a modest suggestion: Don't scratch. 01/31/06 - A Law-Abiding Bull Market
By Dan Denning The "peak oil" debate keeps raging on the message boards
and blogs of the Internet. Some folks argue that we're
running out of the precious black goo. Others advance a
more hopeful forecast, or predict that innovation will
spare future generations from the pain of exhausted
hydrocarbon supplies. Both camps present compelling ideas,
but neither camp presents an idea that would prevent oil
prices from soaring much higher than they are currently. 01/27/06 - Grab a Lifeline
By James Boric This is a critical time for small-cap investors. Now is the
time to weed out the companies in your portfolio that have
no cash, lots of debt and poor fundamentals. Now is the
time to make sure we invest in healthy companies that can
thrive, even if the Federal Reserve chokes off the lifeline
to easy credit.
01/26/06 - The Sunsets are Free
By Eric J. Fry When we last visited Nicaragua's Rancho Santana, in
December 2002, the locals did not own surfboards; the maids
did not own portable CD players; and the domestic beers did
not cost $1.20 apiece at the local market. Of course, back
then, there was no local market, nor any Internet access,
nor 300 uniformed employees.
01/24/06 - Bagging Texas Tea, Part II
By Matt Badiali Last week, I cited Anadarko, Devon and Occidental as
potential takeover candidates. Allow me to provide a bit
more detail.
01/20/06 - Bagging Texas Tea
By Matt Badiali Kurt Wulff called his shot a year ago. It was the financial
equivalent of standing at home plate and pointing to the
right field fence, then hitting the next pitch out of the
park. He did it in a Barron's interview last year.
01/19/06 - Lost in Love
By Eric J Fry
A rallying financial market is like a new romance. Warm,
fuzzy feelings triumph over all other considerations. The
impulse to criticize, or even to analyze, recedes into the
anesthetizing bliss of gentle kisses, candlelit dinners and
afternoon delights...like strolling through the botanical
garden, for instance.
01/17/06 - Buy Wholesale, Sell Retail
By Chris Mayer
Wall Street and Main Street rarely agree about the price of
anything. Sometimes Wall Street values certain assets above
what private investors would pay. At other times, Wall
Street prices out-of-favor assets well below what private
investors would pay. The latter of these two pricing
disparities is the sort of thing that causes us value
investors to bound out of bed in the morning. 01/13/06 - China's Secret Metal
By Jeff Clark Gold is grabbing all the headlines today...but palladium
may be grabbing all the headlines tomorrow. That's because
demand for this precious metal is picking up a head of
steam.
01/12/06 - The Marvels of Google-Mart
Edited by Eric J Fry Last spring, Google's share price topped your New York
editor's slightly elevated cholesterol level. At the time,
he expected Google to slip back below 200 well before his
cholesterol would. But he was quite wrong...More than a century
has passed since Ransom Eli Olds introduced the first
mass-production vehicle, the Curved Dash Oldsmobile, in 1901.
A hundred years later, developments in automotive technology
have not slowed down." 01/10/06 - The Sweet Smell of Diesel
By Justice Litle
More than a century has passed since Ransom Eli Olds
introduced the first mass-production vehicle, the Curved Dash
Oldsmobile, in 1901. A hundred years later, developments
in automotive technology have not slowed down."
01/06/06 - Hi-Ho Silver!
By Justice Litle
Gold is not the only metal to stir the hearts of men with
feverish dreams. Its long-running companion, silver, also
possesses the power to enthrall...and we suspect it will
continue enthralling, if not dazzling, investors throughout
the rest of this decade.
01/05/06 - Bottoms Up!
By Dan Denning
Edited by Eric Fry A "watershed moment" has arrived!...Literally. One of the
most dynamic and profitable themes for the rest of this
decade will be investing in water. Purifying, filtering,
transporting, storing and bottling water will become
increasingly important global businesses.
01/03/06 - Blue Gold
By Chris Mayer
A gallon of crude oil costs $1.45. A gallon of Evian costs
$11.91. This simple observation led one successful investor
to assert that oil is undervalued. We see things a little
differently...Oil may be undervalued, but NOT relative to
drinking water. In fact, the truth is exactly the opposite.
01/02/06 - Cerebral Striptease – the Final Chapter
Edited by Eric J. Fry "This long e-mail thread all got started with a debate
about the meaning of trade statistics - because the trade
statistics show a 'trade deficit' which seems worrisome,"
Chris Mayer reminded his colleagues half-way through their
weeks-long email exchange. BACK | 
