Real Estate Bull Market Real Estate Bull Market: The Newest Bull Market...in Real Estate!
by Dan Ferris
The Rude Awakening
Wall Street, New York
Thursday, October 13, 2005 Dan Ferris discusses the new residential Real Estate Bull Market. ------------------------- - The newest bull market where you least expect to find
it...in real estate!
- International Living's expert in search of the
perfect beachfront sanctuary and,
- This secret Canadian government program is making
some Americans filthy rich
------------------------- [Joel's Note: I was so tempted to rename this issue
something like, "All the Wonderful Places I Can't Afford!"
or, "Not on my Salary, Mate!" And I probably could have got
away with it too, as Eric is in France – another sore
subject. But as I read through, I realized that such exotic
locals are far less expensive than I anticipated. So now
the carrot is hung even closer to my nose! How about we
talk about that raise when you get back hey, Eric? Hope you enjoy these real real estate insights from some of
the best in the biz. Cheers!
-------------------------- The Newest Bull Market...in Real Estate!
By Dan Ferris You heard it here first: the new bull market in residential
real estate is under way. According to SNL Financial, apartment REITs are up 21% over
the past 12 months. That's a little higher than the average
REIT, and way above the S&P 500's 6.9% return in the same
period. Apartment vacancies in the country's top 70 markets are
down, according to www.reis.com . During the third quarter,
vacancies fell to 5.9%, down from 6.6% during the same
period last year. And, as you'd expect, fewer vacant apartments mean higher
prices. As vacancies fell, rents rose 1.2%, net of all
concessions (things like free first month's rent, for
example). Lloyd Lynford, CEO of reis.com, says that
landlords are offering fewer concessions. Fewer concessions
mean that the apartment market is favoring landlords
instead of renters. If you think that Hurricane Katrina is responsible for the
uptick, I'll have to disagree. The rental apartment market
in the U.S. improved for the third straight quarter, and
Katrina happened a little over a month ago (has it been
that long already?). "I am pretty comfortable saying that the apartment recovery
has taken hold." That's what Michael Cohen told the Wall
Street Journal this morning. Cohen is an economist at
Property & Portfolio Research in Boston. Real Estate Bull Market: Houston In January of this year, I recommended an apartment REIT in
the first issue of our (then brand new) Real Estate
Shareholder letter. Most of its property is in the
southeast, which was recently hit by two major hurricanes.
The company's Houston apartments suddenly became very
popular. The stock rose on the news. Overall Houston vacancy rates have been among the highest
in the country. Property & Portfolio Research pegged
Houston vacancies at 13.7% before Katrina struck. Now,
they're at 10.7%. When insider selling among REITs hit a three-year high
earlier this year, our recommended apartment REIT's CEO was
the only insider actually doing some buying. He said he
thought the share price was low and he didn't think the
market was recognizing the true value of the company's
apartments. It's a sleepy little stock in a boring business, but it's
already produced a total return to shareholders of over 13%
since January, much of that in cash dividends. And it's
still within pennies of our maximum buy price. I can hardly
think of a better business to be in right now. Sign Up for The Rude Awakening Start your mornings off with a dose of Rude news. The Rude Awakening is dedicated to highlighting phenomena in the financial markets that others may not see. Let the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times "break news." Sign up FREE Today! We will not share your email address with anyone else, period.
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On September 29, the American Bankers Association said the
percentage of credit card accounts 30 days or more past due
rose to 4.81%, up from 4.76% in the first quarter of 2005.
The association's chief economist, James Chessen, said,
"Gas is the driving factor. For those already struggling to
meet their financial obligations, it has been one more
strain." As a nation, we're spending less of our income on
gas now than we did ten years ago. So, if some folks aren't
making credit card payments because of higher gas prices,
they probably don't represent the upper end of the housing
market. When things go bad, folks like this wind up in
apartments. Put higher energy prices together with higher interest
rates for sub-prime mortgages (H&R Block's mortgage
division just raised its sub-prime rates 40 basis points),
and you have a situation that looks pretty good for
apartment REITs. If high-energy prices persist and interest rates go up,
marginal homebuyers will become apartment renters.
Everybody has to live somewhere, and when you can't afford
to buy, you rent. [Joel's Note: Dan has been flat out like a lizard drinking
of late, hunting down the real estate investments others
glance over. He's found one tiny real estate company poised
to go public that could deliver up to 69% on the first day
out. You may have to give yourself an uppercut if you miss
out on this one. Check it out here: Real Estate Investment --- Advertisement ---
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------------------------- Eric continues...(from France!) But even when you CAN afford to buy, you need not always
buy pricey American real estate. Investors with a penchant
for the exotic and/or a passion for an inexpensive home
along a balmy Pacific coastline, might want to consider one
of the many opportunities available in Nicaragua. Leif Simon, editor of Leif Simon's Global Real Estate
Investor, recently filed the following report about Lee
Harrison's 10-day jaunt along Nicaragua's spectacular
coastline. (We featured several of Lee's missives in recent
editions of the Rude Awakening. Check out the archives
here: Three Homes for the Price of One
Sunsets, Surf and Nicaragua's Best Burgers
Lee Harrison has been on a mission. Lee, IL's expert on all things Latin American, is searching
for the perfect beach retreat...and his quest has led him
to Nicaragua because "these beaches enjoy real 'beach'
weather all year. There's no cool season, no gloomy season,
and even in the rainy season the sun shines most of the
day. It's a place that you can go to anytime of the year to
enjoy the surf and sand." You've no doubt read some of Lee's reports in the Rude
Awakening, as he scoured the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
from San Juan del Sur northward. He found something to suit
you, no matter your taste. To bring you up to speed on the
best of what he's discovered, here's the story so far: Bucaneer Point Tropical vegetation leads to a secluded sandy beach. Luxury
homes made of a rich, dark Brazilian hardwood, each home
perched on a cliff with Pacific views. Prices from about
$200,000. Lee's verdict: Best choice if you want a seaside home but
enjoy the woods, too. Iguana Beach Home to Nicaragua's two best surf breaks, including the
famous Colorado break. Condos with views of the 9-hole golf
course start at $129,000. Lee's verdict: Best for surfers. Villas de Palermo Once a sleepy fishing village, San Juan del Sur-30 minutes
from Costa Rica - is now the hub for tourism on Nicaragua's
Pacific coast (and home to this country's best burger
joint). Condos overlooking the bay start at $169,000. These
condos are completely turnkey - furniture, appliances,
linens, silverware...you can get everything. Lee's verdict: Best hassle-free option. Coco Beach The most "rainforesty" of everything Lee saw on the
Nicaraguan Pacific Coast, Coco Beach is one of the nicest
swimming beaches around, and close to the famous La Flor
turtle hatching site. The cacophony of screeching tropical
birds here is almost as loud as the surf. These large
condos, from a former National Police Commissioner-turned
developer, start at $190,000. Lee's verdict: Perfect for nature lovers. Rancho Santana The Cadillac of beachfront communities, reminiscent of
exclusive gated communities near Dana Point or Laguna Beach
in Orange County, with their multi-million-dollar
properties looking out over the Pacific. This development
has everything - an impressive clubhouse with fine
restaurant, high-speed Internet service, a new bar, a
beautiful pool looking out on to the beach, a water plant
providing pure drinking water, their own cell tower, and
all underground utilities. Lots start at $40,000. Lee's verdict: Look no further if you're in Nicaragua for
the long-term. [Joel's Note: This is our pick for RA readers. You can
write in for more info at land@ranchosantana.com ] Cumbres de Montecristo Ninety minutes from downtown Managua, this wide, long,
black-sand beach is among the nicest in Nicaragua.
Montecristo is a whopping 550 acres of rolling hills and
oceanfront. Here no one will be encroaching on your view or
the community's space. Ocean view lots start at $45,000,
oceanfront from $105,000. Lee's verdict: Perfect if you need space to stretch out. Gran Pacifica One of the widest, gentlest, and longest stretches of white
sand beach on the coast...2,200 acres and three-and-a-half
miles of beautiful sand beach...the plan here is for a
custom-made beach town. Lots from $34,000. Lee's verdict: This is an ambitious project and, if it
comes to fruition, will be spectacular. All good insights...with which I'd concur. Lee hasn't completed his search for the perfect beach just
yet. Next on his agenda: Uruguay's hidden coast. He'll
report back very soon... [A very important note to readers: Lee's employer,
International Living, receives commissions on property
sales made at some of the developments listed above. Also,
the Rude Awakening receives commissions from some of the
property sales that occur at Rancho Santana.] [Joel's Note: You know the guy who just flipped the house
up the street, bragging about his profits to the whole
neighborhood? Wouldn't you love to casually mention your
international real estate investment that just obliterated
his tiny return? Keep abreast of where people are bagging
the serious cash in the international real estate market.
It's not nearly as hard as you think. Check out Leif's
letter and get the know-how right here: The Global Real Estate Investor Begins Here
--- Advertisement --- Warren Buffett's 8 Great Investment Plays. Read It! Discover what America's greatest investor says are the best
8 investments for 2005-2006. Also revealed - the top stock picks in his Berkshire
Hathaway portfolio. Get this vital information. Click the link below NOW! http://www.newsmax.com/fir/fir22.cfm ------------------------- [Joel's FINAL Note for the day: Thanks for all the emails
of late folks. Whether they are about oil shale, yes it was
trillion, not billion, hot spots to visit in Florida or
Eric's ghastly cholesterol level, we love 'em all. Keep
them coming to aussiejoel@rudeawakening.com ------------------------- And the Markets... | Wednesday | Tuesday | This week | Year-to-Date | DOW | 10,217 | 10,253 | -75 | -5.2% | S&P | 1,178 | 1,185 | -18 | -2.8% | NASDAQ | 2,037 | 2,061 | -53 | -6.3% | 10-year Treasury | 4.45 | 4.39 | 9.00 | 4.41 | 30-year Treasury | 4.66 | 4.60 | 9.00 | 4.61 | Russell 2000 | 622 | 630 | -23 | -4.6% | Gold | $470.90 | $475.60 | -$3.95 | 7.6% | Silver | $7.74 | $7.81 | $0.02 | 13.6% | CRB | 332.10 | 330.46 | 6.89 | 17.0% | WTI NYMEX CRUDE | $63.88 | $63.79 | $2.04 | 47.0% | Yen (YEN/USD) | JPY 114.37 | JPY 114.49 | -0.58 | -11.5% | Dollar (USD/EUR) | $1.2031 | $1.1997 | 95 | 11.2% | Dollar (USD/GBP) | $1.7515 | $1.7464 | 92 | 8.7% |
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