The Rude Awakening
Wall Street, New York
Tuesday, April 25, 2006 ------------------------- - Learn to read this hottie's signals by following the
smart money,
- Your morning coffee and "Ah ha" moment,
- The market data from the week so far and no reality
television...
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Flirting with a Hottie
By Eric J. Fry The crude oil market is throwing off more mixed messages
than a budding romance. Crude's alluring price profile
seems to be saying, "Come and get it." But at the same
time, this lovely creature seems to be whispering in our
ears, "I think it's time for you to go." Such ambiguity rarely leads to a satisfying outcome...Not
in romance; and not in finance. That's why we are inclined
to stay clear of the oil market for a while. Crude oil has become one very hot commodity...enticingly
hot. U.S. crude oil inventories are a hefty 11% above the
five-year average for this time of year. Natural gas
inventories are also ample. Nevertheless, the price of crude continues to soar and the
bullish speculators continue to pile into the market.
According to the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, the
so-called large speculators hold a record-high long
position in crude oil. The chart below shows who has been
taking the other side of the trade. The commercial traders
hold a record-high net short position in crude oil. 
As we have noted in several prior columns, the
"Commercials" are consider the "smart money," based on
their tendency to position themselves correctly at
important inflexion points. The Commercials' massive short
position, therefore, bodes ill for the price of crude...and
for all those speculators who are betting on it to go
higher still. 
The Marketvane survey of commodity futures advisors
validates the bearish implications of the Commitment of
Traders report. According to the Marketvane, 76% of futures
advisors are bullish on crude oil. This extreme reading is
very close to the two-year high reading of 84%, and raises
the likelihood that the overly popular crude oil market
will become somewhat less popular very soon. All of these warning signs inspire us to turn our back on
this red-hot commodity...and we'd suggest you do the same
for a short while. Go ahead and flirt with this "hottie,"
if you must. But we hate to see you get hurt. [Joel's note: Flirting with hotties is a surefire way to
get burned...that I know from experience. Saying that, it
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