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The Rude Awakening
Laguna Beach, California
Tuesday, June 06, 2006

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  • This filthy fossil has been cleaning up its act...is
    it time for you to act too?

  • A 250-year supply right in your own backyard,

  • Scientists go to work on Laguna's best assets and
    plenty more...
     

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Eric Fry, reporting from Laguna Beach, CA...

"I can't believe you just beat us," an incredulous 23-year-old
said to your slightly older New York editor, while
shaking hands after a game of beach volleyball.

"Yeah, I can't believe it either," your editor smiled,
savoring his fourth straight victory on the sands of
Laguna's Main Beach. Sometimes, thankfully, sheer youthful
athleticism is no match for experience...and a residual
athleticism.

"So when are you moving out here," the 23-year-old
inquired.

"Pretty soon," your editor replied.

"Cool. You gotta keep coming down here. We play a lot of
weekdays around 3:00."

"I'll keep that in mind. Thanks."

...This casual inter-generational exchange seemed to typify
life in Laguna Beach. Throughout the town, 40-somethings
and 20-somethings co-exist seamlessly with one another. In
fact, they sometimes resemble one another. A few 40-
something mothers look very much like they could be the 20-
something sisters of their teenage daughters.

Formerly an artsy town where hippies and Hare Krishna once
roamed, Laguna Beach has become strikingly materialistic.
But even so, a hint of the casual costal "vibe" remains.

It is still a place where fathers and sons sometimes team
up together on volleyball courts; a place where mothers and
daughters sometimes surf the same waves; a place where
Harvey Wallbanger-drinkers occupy barstools alongside
Mojito-drinkers...And Laguna is still a place where
chardonnay-sipping Baby Boomers circulate through the
town's many art galleries on "First Thursday" – pretending
to love art – alongside body-pierced Gen-Xers.

To be sure, the casual co-existence between the generations
may not be as relaxed as it appears to an outsider...but an
unreal sense of timelessness and agelessness seems to
permeate the town. Perhaps the soothing cadence of coastal
living deserves most of the credit for blurring the
generational divide...and for prolonging the youthful
demeanors of the over-40 crowd.

But let's not forget to give credit to Orange County's
numerous plastic surgeons...

While hanging out at a Laguna coffee shop one sunny
morning, your editor remarked to a friend, "You know, even
though I've spent a lot of time here over the years, I
don't recall ever seeing such a large quantity of pretty
females milling about."

"Yeah, it's a little odd, isn't it?" the friend replied.
"But that's what you get when you combine a privileged
lifestyle...with year-round sunshine...with an absolutely
Greek commitment to physical beauty...with one of the
highest per capita plastic surgery rates in the country."
"Hmmm...that makes sense," your editor shrugged. "But am I
supposed to be appalled or delighted?"

The friend refused to answer the question; forcing your
editor, instead, to decide for himself whether the triumphs
of science over nature – in this particular instance –
merit scorn or applause.

We suspect that the impulse to scorn or to applaud cosmetic
surgery depends mostly upon one's core philosophical
beliefs...or one's zip code. In 92651, the Laguna Beach zip
code, breast augmentation appears to receive a standing
ovation.

But while plastic surgeons are busily augmenting breasts
along the California coastline, a handful of innovative
individuals and companies are busily augmenting America's
domestic energy supplies. Just like plastic surgeons, these
energy-innovators are devising ever-more-ingenious ways to
convert something old into something new.

Dan Denning shares the details below...

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The Newest Old Thing, Part II
By Dan Denning

Coal is plentiful...Coal is cheap...Coal is dirty.
Select the one attribute that does not conform with the
other two.

If you selected "coal is dirty," you chose the correct
response. But what if coal were cleaner? It would still be
plentiful, of course. But it probably wouldn't be as cheap.
That's the reason we like coal. A new generation of "clean-
coal" technologies could increase demand for this filthy
fossil fuel, thereby causing its price to rise...perhaps
dramatically.

Coincidentally, no country stands to benefit more from
clean-coal technologies than the United States. We've got a
250-year supply of the stuff. Surely, we'll figure out an
effective – and clean – way to use it.

"Throughout the 20th century, the United States has been a
profligate energy consumer," a couple of U.S. Army
researchers assert. "The rapid and expansive growth of the
economy was based on cheap and abundant energy. Little
thought and planning has been given to how to transition to
the realities of the 21st century, when petroleum and
natural gas resources will become depleted. The U.S.
economy uses 50% more energy per unit of GDP than the other
developed nations of the world (EIA 2004). The fossil fuel-
based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy is not a
viable model for the United States or the rest of the world
over the long term. It is not sustainable."

I agree. Quite obviously, an economic model that relies
heavily upon cheap energy is not sustainable in a world of
expensive energy – the world we have already entered. As
the price of crude oil trudges inexorably higher, our
energy-intensive economy will seek viable alternatives.

Renewable sources like wind, hydro and bio-fuel will
certainly play a role. But one of the most viable
alternatives is not really an alternative at all...it is
coal.

New technologies have created new opportunities for this
plentiful, but scorned fossil fuel.

The governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, has made the
creation of coal-gasification and liquefaction plants a
veritable mission. He is convinced that creating liquid
fuels from coal is the answer to our energy dependence
problem and that "cleaning it" through gasification (the
removal of harmful ingredients) will help solve coal's
obvious environmental problems.

It bears mentioning that both China and India have made
coal gasification and liquefaction projects high priorities
in their respective national energy strategies. When George
Bush signed a deal with India to help that country develop
the energy its economy needs to grow, it was front-page
news. What didn't make the front page was that a Coal
Working Group formed between the two counties is co-
developing technologies to exploit coal-bed methane, coal
gasification and liquefaction, and other clean-coal-related
technologies.

And what would an analysis of global energy trends be
without asking what China is up to? China's government is
hard at work with research institutions to develop
proprietary technology for coal liquefaction and
gasification. China would also like — and desperately needs
— to cut coal emissions. It has, in fact, made a zero-
emissions coal-fired power plant one of its goals.

Whether China, or any country for that matter, can finally
clean up coal is open to debate. What I like about the
whole debate, though, is that it's one of the few
industries I see out there in which technology actually can
lead to cleaner, more efficient, use of abundant
hydrocarbons. I'm not talking wind or solar here. I'm
talking about the more efficient and cleaner use of an
abundant energy resource.

While Montana has been grabbing all the coal-related
headlines, Wyoming has been gaining celebrity as the
setting for a love story between two strapping young
sheepherders. But did you know that Wyoming produces over
35% of the nation's coal?

Wyoming's coal is of the bituminous variety. That is, it is
not as dense as the anthracite coal of eastern
Pennsylvania. It has fewer Btu per ton. But because it has
fewer Btu, it means it also has less sulfur. That makes
Wyoming's cheap and abundant coal some of the cleanest
burning coal in the country.

And for a country that's about to embark on a second love
affair with the industrial prowess of coal, cleaner-burning
coal will be very popular. General Electric, for one, is
acutely quite interested in Wyoming and the 400 million
tons of coal the state exports each year. Why?

GE owns the patent on a coal-gasification technique that's
used in over 60 coal-gasification plants worldwide. That
process removes usable gas from coal without the harmful
emissions. The gas can then be used to generate power. The
whole process is called the integrated gasification
combined cycle, or IGCC. It's the Holy Grail of the coal
industry. Get cleaner gas from the rock using a special
process, then use that cleaner gas to generate power for
man, the economy, and the state.

If you're talking Wyoming coal — the kind that can be
surface mined or strip-mined by giant machines, then you're
talking about the Powder River Basin. The Powder River's
bituminous coal may not have as much energy (Btu) per ton
as anthracite. But what it lacks in energy intensity it
makes up for in the ease with which it can be recovered.

It does not require an army of miners digging in an
underworld of mines. You simply unleash a machine that
tears the earth apart. And because it's in Wyoming, with
one of the lowest population densities per square mile in
America, it's not going to offend too many people, although
it may disturb the sheep.

What's the strategic energy investment we're after here?
The answer is Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU). With 9.8 billion
tons of proved and provable coal reserves in 36 countries
all over the globe, BTU is a coal colossus. It also owns
and operates the North Antelope Rochelle complex, which was
the No. 1 producing coal mine in American in 1984, at 82
million tons. With total production of 192 million short
tons of coal in 2004, Peabody was the largest producer in
America, cranking out 17.3% of the nation's coal.

At $60 a share, the stock trades for about 16 times next
year's earnings. It's also coming off a recent
correction...and might continue to correct. I like the
stock below $60...and love it below $50. The story with BTU
really is about as simple as it gets. As natural gas
production declines and reserves deplete, more coal will
have to be produced to run the nation's existing power
plants. Add to that the number of new coal-fired plants on
the books and you have even more increased demand for low-
sulfur Wyoming coal.

Am I worried that BTU is also Jim Cramer's favorite coal
stock? A little. But Cramer is mad, not stupid. And even a
madman gets it right from time to time.

[Joel's Note: As always, we would love to hear just what
you have to say about this, the newest old thing. Send your
energetic thoughts to aussiejoel@the-rude-awakening.com and
check out more of Dan's own thoughts right here:

Strategic Investment
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/EDRIFB05

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http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/OST/EOSTG604

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