The Rude Awakening Wall Street, New York Wednesday, June 22, 2006 ------------------------- - Yawning all the way to the bank...slow and steady
wins the race...
- A simple, tidy framework for solid investing,
- The markets rally, a few more green arrows and a
former insider gives you a big hint...
--- Special Investment Alert --- FORMER INSIDER: $15.4 BILLION DEMAND WAVE COULD HIT THESE SEVEN COMPANIES A former star broker at one of Wall Street's most powerful firms – one with over $500 billion in assets – now believes a mammoth wave of "buy" orders worth up to $15.4 BILLION DOLLARS could drive seven stocks through the roof, starting just days from now. Click below for a full, free report on his research, and just how and why this may be the biggest money-making opportunity you'll see this year. http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/MAL/EMALG610/ ------------------------- "Dhando!" By Chris Mayer This past month, I journeyed to Los Angeles for a unique kind of conference. It was called the Value Investing Congress. The gathering featured some of the most successful cheapskates of the investment world. These are the guys who don't like to pay much for anything, who are usually bearish on most things and who like digging around in the dumpsters and sewers of finance, trolling around for overlooked goodies. Basically, a variety of top-performing investors offered up insights and ideas over two days to a packed audience. My favorite speaker was Mohnish Pabrai, and not because I was so interested in his stock pick (it was Berkshire Hathaway, which, by the way, was probably the most talked- about stock at the conference. Everybody seemed to think it was a bargain). I enjoyed Pabrai's fascinating and insightful story about Mr. B. U. Patel. B. U. Patel is the founder and CEO of Tarsadia Hotels and probably the richest South Asian in Southern California. He started with one 20-room motel in Anaheim, California and eventually grew to over 4,400 rooms across America – becoming one of the dominant motel operators. Apparently, the Patels were refugees from East Africa. They had a strong entrepreneurial drive and a smart sense about value. They strived to put themselves in situations where they could make a lot or lose a little. Such situations would cause the Patels to exclaim, "Dhando!" Literally translated, it means "business." But the connotation was "a very good deal." Or, as Pabrai put it, "Heads I win, tails I don't lose much." Anyway, the Patels would buy a motel for little money down, move their clan in and fire all the workers. The family then ran the motel and dropped prices. In a short amount of time they would fill up the motel and earn lots of cash. Then, they would take their money and do it again…and again and again. Each time, they re-invested in new motels in similar situations. In time, they became the dominant motel operator in the country. About 1/3rd of all U.S. motels are operated by Patels – that's about a $40 billion enterprise. Pabrai's point in telling this story was to show how they only looked for situations where they could make a lot and lose a little. Mohnish Pabrai created a list of what he calls the Dhando framework, which outlines the Patel philosophy. It is a nice little model for investors. 
Most of these principles are self-evident. A couple of them could use a little explaining. Number 5 simply means that the Patels are looking to take advantage of relatively easy opportunities. Like their motel operation, it was a simple matter to dismiss all the existing workers – which represented huge cost savings – and replace them with family members. Eventually, this gap closed as the Patels themselves got bigger and as they ran into competition that copied their methods. Number 8 is interesting, too. Pabrai quoted the work of Amar Bhide, who found that most Inc. 500 Entrepreneurs had adopted – or appropriated – their central business idea from a former employer – and many times the employer was not even interested in the idea. 
Pabrai has a very solid track record, beating all the major indices and 99% of all funds since its inception. He runs a tight, portfolio of only about a dozen names. He makes big bets, holds on to his stocks and "takes naps in the afternoon." Most hedge fund managers spend the afternoon sweating, not sleeping. For those interested, I highly recommend his book Mosaic: Perspectives on Investing. It is a short collection of insightful essays about investing. Well worth it. Here is a look at his 12-name portfolio, from largest positions to smallest: | Stock | Value (in millions) | | Ipsco Inc. Harvest Nat Res Inc Bio Scrip, Inc. Fairfax Finl Holdings Ltd Berkshire Hathaway Universal Stainless & Alloy Genco Shipping & Trading Covanta Holding ABX Air, Inc Pinnacle Airlines Corp. Star Gas Partners LP Dr. Reddys Labs Ltd | $59,928 $32,677 $23,994 $22,387 $21,434 $16,157 $14,991 $14,918 $14,216 $11,521 $7,610 $6,371 |
Of these names, he's added Genco Shipping & Trading and ABX Air in the most recent quarter.
Genco Shipping & Trading is a dry bulk carrier, which transports things like coal, grain, steel and iron ore. These shippers all look pretty cheap. But there is a reason. Genco and its ilk operate in volatile markets. Shipping rates change dramatically based on small changes in demand and supply. Hence, the earnings of these companies are tough to predict and will probably always carry low multiples in the market. However, Pabrai probably sees this as a global play on growth in China and India, in an industry that is facing consolidation. The business is highly fragmented. Plus, in Genco, you have a relatively new fleet, with experienced management and a good financial condition. It's one to keep an eye on. The ticker is GSTL and it's about $17 as I write. ABX Air is an airfreight company. The all-cargo airline has a fleet of about 100 planes. Like Genco, ABX appears statistically cheap. The company also generates good cash flow and generates a healthy return on equity. Pabrai seems to like the transportation angle. In any event, ABX is another good one to watch. The ticker is ABXA. As I write, it's trading for about $7 per share. These two companies operate in industries that often elicit more yawns than cheers. But if Pabrai's investment acumen is on target once again, the buyers of these stocks might someday get the urge to shout, ""Dhando!" [Joel's Note: If you enjoy expensive stocks laden with risk and far-flung promises, the Capital & Crisis is not the investment service for you. While others conjure up snake oils and market beating "tarot solutions," Rude favorite, Chris Mayer, is doing the hard work and getting his readers ahead. And, let's be honest here, a little respite from the market volatility with some healthy, fundamentally sounds bargains never hurt anyone. Check out Chris's latest report here to find out if this service is right for you. Capital & Crisis: http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/FST/EFSTG109 --- Special --- The ONLY Stock You Need to Own... This stock is seriously the ONLY stock you will need to own over the next 10 years. In fact, it's looking to be the next Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett already has over $300 million in this company...it's one of the biggest in his portfolio, even though it's hardly a household name! Find out how you too can get in on this amazing opportunity! www.isecureonline.com/Reports/FST/EFSTG608 ------------------------- 
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