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The Rude Awakening

Laguna Beach, California

Thursday, August 3, 2006

-------------------------

  • Five trends you can ride to really cash in over the
    next few years,

  • The dollar inferno – how to put your dollars to work
    in foreign investment diversification,

  • Some words of wisdom from an unlikely character, the
    markets so far this week, a resource guarantee and
    more...

-------------------------

Eric Fry, a comfortable remove from the sweltering
Northeast, reports...

Now that your (California) editor has returned from
Vancouver to his new home in Laguna Beach, he is finding
his work process to be both easier and more difficult. The
presence of sunshine and ocean air seems to make the
process easier. On the other hand, the lack of a full-time
residence and a conventional office makes the process a
little more difficult.

Therefore, he finds himself producing his columns for the
Rude Awakening from a kitchen table in a friend's house,
while his three kids are milling about, sometimes
contentedly, sometimes not. In this mixed-use environment,
the nearby TV is just as likely to display CNBC as Sponge
Bob Squarepants.

Hence, the nearby TV is just as likely to dispense insight
as absurdity. Who knew that the insight would come from
Sponge Bob?

In today's episode, Patrick, the starfish friend of Sponge
Bob, remarked, "Like my mommy always said, 'If you can't
say something nice about someone, don't blow your nose in
your hand.'"

Maria Bartiromo offered no insight of comparable value.

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----------------------------

...Found in Vancouver, Part II
by Eric J. Fry

 "Buy anything that can grow wheat on it," Eric Roseman
urged the attendees of last week's Agora Wealth Symposium
in Vancouver, "Wheat is in a long-term bull market. I'm
bullish on grains. I'm bullish on agriculture. I'm bullish
on ethanol."

Roseman, in his capacity as investment director of the
Sovereign Society, has amassed a formidable investment track
record, mostly by correctly anticipating the bull market in
commodities...and not abandoning it prematurely.

He intends to stay the course.

 "The commodity bull market has a long time to run," he
declared. "It is one of the five investment mega-trends for
the next two years."

During the next 30 minutes, Roseman identified and
discussed these five trends. Faithful Rude readers may
recognize one or two of them:

Peak Oil – "Energy is in a secular bull market," Roseman
asserted. "That means oil prices are going to go a lot
higher before this bull market is over. I like energy
stocks a lot...I especially like the Strategic Energy Trust
(Toront SEF.UN). This trust holds some of the very best
energy stocks in Canada. It also yields more than 10%,
which is a very beautiful thing. As an added kicker, the
trust is denominated in Canadian dollars. This fact should
boost your total return, if, as I expect the Canadian
dollar breaks above par value to the U.S. dollar some time
before 2008."

U.S. Dollar Bear Market, Part II. Roseman's bullish stance
toward the Canadian dollar reflects his bearish stance
toward the U.S. variety. "The greenback's long-term decline
since 1971 will resume very soon. So if you haven't already
diversified into other currencies, you should do so now.

"The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is
already fading," Roseman asserted. "The transition away
from dollars has already begun. Many central banks are
beginning to fill their vaults with non-dollar assets.
They're buying foreign currencies and gold. And this trend
will continue, as investors lose patience with the American
government's failure to address the country's massive
deficits.

"Most of you in this room hold the majority of your assets
in U.S. dollars," Roseman continued. "Your house is valued
in dollars; your paycheck is in dollars; your retirement
account in dollars; your life insurance is in dollars.

"So for heaven's sake," he pleaded, "please sell some
dollars and diversify into other currencies!"

Precious Metals. Roseman also fancies investments in gold,
the classic dollar hedge. "Gold is heading toward $2,000 an
ounce," he predicted. "We've been holding gold stock
positions for many years already, but it's much too early
to sell."

Roseman is partial to Bema Gold (AMEX: BGO), ASA ltd.
(NYSE: ASA), Anglo-American (NYSE: AAUK) and Goldcorp
(NYSE: GG). Roseman made it abundantly clear to the
conference attendees that he is no Johnny-come-lately to
the gold sector. Bema Gold, for example, has soared more
than 400% since his initial recommendation. Despite such
hefty gains, however, Roseman remains a buyer of gold
stocks, not a seller.

Agricultural Commodities. "The agricultural sector has been
lagging most other commodity sectors since 2001," Roseman
observed. "The metals are way up. The energies are way up.
But very few of the ags have made much of a move. That's
about to change. Declining crop yields, coupled with
booming demand from China and India will cause the grain
markets to soar. And let's not forget ethanol. This new
source of demand for corn and sugar is growing at a very
rapid pace."

Roseman expects all these sources of demand to produce a
major, long-term bull market in agricultural commodities.
He is not alone. The UN predicts that demand for ag
commodities will increase 5-fold by 2030.

"Stocks like ADM should do very well," Roseman suggested.
"But I like CBOT Holdings (NYSE:BOT) as a one-stop play on
the coming ag bull market. The Chicago Board of Trade
possess the largest grain-trading platform in the world.
But the CBOT also trades gold and many of the other
commodity markets that are in the early stages of a bull
market. As a major kicker, the CBOT possess the world's
largest Treasury trading platform. And volumes are growing
rapidly in this market as well.

"I really like CBOT stock," he concluded. "You're going to
make a lot of money buying CBOT."

A couple days after Roseman's presentation, the CBOT
disclosed that average daily derivatives trading volume in
July jumped 21 percent from a year ago, led by a 26%
increase in agriculture contract trading.

Global Titans on Sale! "The next three years belong to
undervalued global large cap stocks," Roseman predicted.
The big, stodgy blue chips of the world have been going
nowhere for years. But these stocks will soon begin to
outperform small caps."

As, the nearby chart illustrates, the streetTRACKS DJ
Global Titans ETF (AMEX: DGT) has produced a total return
of ZERO since the end of 2000. Over the identical time-
frame, the MSCI Index of Emerging Market stocks has soared
126%.

"But as the global economy slows," Roseman predicts,
"investors will begin to move away from risky stocks toward
the stodgy blue chip stocks. These stocks are very cheap
right now. Through DGT, you can buy a basket of the world's
largest companies for only 13 times earnings. And the
dividend yield is over 2%. As an added bonus, many of these
companies trade in foreign currencies."

It's true that DGT does not facilitate wheat-growing, but
it might produce a bountiful harvest nonetheless.


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----------------------------

And the Markets...

 Wednesday

Tuesday

Week-to-Date

Year-to-Date

DOW

11,200

11,126

-0.2%

4.50%

S&P

1,279

1,271

0.0%

2.42%

NASDAQ

2,079

2,062

-0.7%

-5.74%

10-year Treasury

4.96%

4.97%

30-year Treasury

5.04%

5.06%

Russell 2000

697

690

-0.5%

3.50%

Gold

$651.25

$647.85

2.6%

25.97%

Silver

$12.20

$11.76

7.0%

38.34%

CRB

353.69

349.56

2.9%

6.59%

WTI NYMEX CRUDE

$76.12

$75.10

3.9%

24.71%

Yen (USD/YEN)

JPY 114.67

JPY 114.58

-0.1%

2.76%

Dollar (EUR/USD)

$1.2786

$1.2826

0.3%

-8.01%

Dollar (GBP/USD)

$1.8765

$1.8762

0.7%

-9.05%

Dollar (AUD/USD)

$0.7642

$0.7651

-0.4%

-4.28%

Franc (USD/CHF)

$1.2314

$1.2260

-0.2%

6.00%

Dollar (USD/CND)

$1.1272

$1.1307

-0.4%

2.83%



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