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The Rude Awakening
Wall Street, New York
Thursday, September 28, 2006

-------------------------

  • Preparing your portfolio for the winter ahead,

  • The natural choice for a natural gas investment,

  • Lewd, crude and oh so Rude – a naked moment on the
    grass for all to see...

-------------------------

Eric Fry, reporting from Baltimore, MD...

"Why do you suppose that only the woman is nude?" your
editor asked his female French friend as they gazed at
Edouard Manet's "Luncheon on the Grass," one of the many
famous works of art at the Musée d'Orsay in Paris.

"You mean, why aren't the men nude instead?" she replied.

"Well, that too." your editor agreed. "But I was really
just wondering why ANYONE would attend a picnic without
clothing. Seems a little strange. I don't mind naked
females, of course. But I just find this particular naked
female to be quite curious."

"C'est toujours comme ça," the friend explained. "Male
artists often depict women naked for no particular
reason...other than their own amusement. It's classic
objectification."

"Yeah, but this example seems a bit more blatant than
most," your editor replied, as he tried to imagine
something comparable...like a Norman Rockwell mom serving
apple pie to the kiddies in her birthday suit.

"Oui, c'est ridicule."

"Yeah, it's ridiculous. But I guess art plays by its own
rules," your editor reasoned. "Besides, I only object to
these naked female images in theory, not in practice."

The friend merely rolled her eyes, as she strolled away
from her déclassé American friend toward landscapes by
Renoir and Monet. Your editor joined her. After lingering
over a few of these masterpieces, your editor and his
friend meandered through the artwork of Degas and Rodin,
where the female images seemed to proliferate...as oil on
canvas, as sculpted marble and as cast bronze.

One particular Rodin bronze, for example, depicted a nude
female torso...without a head. After examining the statue
for a few moments, your editor remarked,  "You know, with a
body like that, I think I understand why Rodin didn't
bother with the head."

"Arêtes!" the friend sternly rebuked your editor. "You're
acting like an ugly American now." Then the friend shook
her head in mild disgust, and walked away muttering, "Plus
ça change, plus c'est la même."

Your editor's frivolous remarks in the Musee d'Orsay have
absolutely nothing to do, of course, with the natural gas
markets. His remarks, therefore, have nothing to do with
the column below by Justice Litle. But you should probably
read the column anyway. If Justice is correct to urge
buying natural gas stocks at their current depressed
levels, then paying for a Parisian vacation  - and a visit
to the Musee d'Orsay - might be a lot easier by this time
next year.

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----------------------------

Buy Natural Gas Now
By Justice Litle

The Farmer's Almanac says we can expect bitter cold and
plenty of snow for the winter ahead. Are you ready? What
about your portfolio?

If you heat your home with natural gas, securing your
winter needs at today's cheap prices might not be a bad
idea. Likewise, if you're hoping to add some fire to your
portfolio in the months ahead, investing in natural gas
stocks at today's cheap prices might not be a bad idea.

One of my current favorites is Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:
CHK). By almost any measure, Chesapeake is a top performer.
It is the top independent onshore producer and the most
active well driller in the United States. It is the third
largest independent producer of natural gas overall, behind
only Anadarko Petroleum (APC: NYSE) and Devon Energy.
Chesapeake's core strategy is to increase reserves through
skillful property purchases and active drilling. The
company relies on its depth of experience for competitive
advantage, and the strategy seems to be working: Since
1999, Chesapeake's proven reserves have increased by a
whopping 575%, from 1.2 trillion to 8.1 trillion cubic feet
equivalent.

Chesapeake's financial metrics look great too. Annual
earnings per share were up 27% for 2004 and 58% for 2005.
The company's five-year return on equity is a competition-
stomping 25.51%, head and shoulders above the 18% industry
and 17.67% sector averages. With a price-to-earnings ratio
around 8, Chesapeake is markedly undervalued relative to
its peer group. Price-to-tangible book suggests an even
bigger discount.

Better still, insiders love the stock. Chesapeake Chairman
and CEO Aubrey McClendon has been buying shares hand over
fist. The overall ratio of insider buys to sells over the
past year has been sharply bullish: more than 5.5 million
shares purchased to fewer than half a million shares sold.

So why has Chesapeake been on sale, relatively speaking?
Blame natural gas. The price of this clean-burning fuel has
been tumbling for months. An unseasonably mild winter this
past year, plus hefty storage numbers approaching 3
trillion cubic feet as of this writing, have both pushed
natural gas futures to almost two-year lows.

But it wouldn't take much for this pessimistic picture to
turn on a dime. A nasty winter, or even just a normal one,
could affect things greatly. Industry executive Fred
Barrett tells The Wall Street Journal that "It only takes
five-10 days of cold weather to wipe out about 400-500
billion cubic feet of gas."

Chesapeake's average daily production is 92% natural gas,
making it about as close to a pure play as you can get. And
now the company is adding another choice natural gas
property to its portfolio. On Aug. 3, Chesapeake announced
it was the winning bidder for drilling rights on 18,000
acres of Barnett Shale Leasehold, beneath the Dallas/Fort
Worth International Airport. Chesapeake, which plans to
drill in between the runways, believes the area could hold
470 billion cubic feet of new reserves. CEO McClendon has
described the Barnett Shale formation as "the last big
prize," expressing his opinion that virtually all of the
great Western properties have now been snapped up.

If McClendon is right about the dwindling availability of
worthwhile gas fields, that could make Chesapeake itself an
appealing takeover candidate for a hungry oil major.
Sometimes, it's easier to buy production on Wall Street
than to go out and find it. Exxon, if it felt so inclined,
could swallow up Chesapeake's $13 billion market cap with
nary a burp. British Petroleum or Shell could also handle
the job.

When push comes to shove, Chesapeake is a high-quality
company with significant exposure to natural gas. It has
significant hedges in place for future production, but with
the crazy volatility swings natural gas can throw out, this
is probably wise (and Chesapeake is experienced enough to
profit on balance from nat gas volatility, rather than be
hurt by it). There is more than enough exposure for CHK to
shine once the bullish case for natural gas reasserts
itself. And we should not forget the lingering possibility
of a major oil company launching a takeover bid for
Chesapeake.

One way or another, we expect Chesapeake to bring a nice,
warm glow to any investment portfolio.
 
[Joel's Note: While the big boys choke on the natural gas
meltdown of late – think Amaranth to the tune of $6billion
– Justice and Outstanding Investments cohort, Kevin Kerr
has been belting trades out of the park. Kevin has already
snatched 52% on natural gas calls this year, 92% last year.
If you want to gear your own portfolio up for the next
profiteering season, be sure to get on board with the
Resource Trader Alert right here:

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----------------------------

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