The Rude Awakening
Wall Street, New York
Wednesday, October 4, 2006 ------------------------- - The abusive behavior of commodities and the explosion
of the Dow,
- Toys for girls - Amanda talks, walks and dazzles with
freakish accuracy,
- All the market arrows, a diabetes breakthrough and
much more...
------------------------- Eric Fry, reporting from the promontory of Dow 11,727... Victory is ours! The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally
achieved a new all-time high! (Which means the terrorists
lost, I think). CNBC cheered the event all day yesterday,
while simultaneously cheering the devastation in the
commodity markets. A new all-time high is sweet to these mouthpieces of the
established financial order, but not nearly as sweet as the
simultaneous implosion of oil, gold and most other
commodities. Rallying commodity prices, you see, are bad
for the stock market...and also serve as a very visible
indictment of Fed policy. In other words, commodities =
bad. Stocks (and Bernanke) = good. We don't like commodities very much either, for the moment.
But only because they are treating us so badly. Commodities
are rebuffing our long-term affection with scorn and abuse. A 20% drop in the price of crude oil since the end of July
has nourished a 15% slide in the broad CRB Index of
commodity futures. Resource stocks have tumbled in
sympathy. The iShares Goldman Sachs Natural Resources ETF
(NYSE: IGE), which boasted a 20% gain for the year back in
May, now has almost nothing to show for its efforts on the
year to date. While we do not welcome this abusive behavior, we are not
entirely surprised by it either. "Now that a geopolitical and meteorological calm seems to
envelope the globe," we remarked in the September 12
edition of the Rude Awakening, "crude oil feels a bit
pricey...at least for the moment... "The long-term bull story notwithstanding, several short-
term indicators for crude oil and the rest of the energy
complex look increasingly bearish. The bullish case for
crude oil seems to rest upon one small, but potent phrase:
'You never know'...You never know what geopolitical and/or
meteorological threats might disrupt supplies for a while.
"The bearish case, however, resides within what we already
know: Supplies are ample, demand is tepid and too many
'paper' investors are long oil." We advised caution. But even the most cautious of commodity
bulls has suffered the sting plummeting prices. We remain
confident that commodities will once again reward the
affection of those who hold them dear. But we have no idea
when this might occur. In the meantime, wounded commodity investors may find some
solace in the company of "Amazing Amanda," as Jonathan
Kolber explains below... --- Biotech Breakthrough ---
Discover the Unknown Canadian Biotech Poised to Grab
Diabetes by the Throat - 400% Potential Returns for Fast-
Acting Investors! Get in on the biggest diabetes treatment breakthrough since
the discovery of insulin. This company, brimming with lifesaving promise, is ready to
claim a whopping slice of the $66 billion spent annually on
diabetes drugs. Learn how you can grab your share of those profits here http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/VPI/EVPIG945 ---------------------------- Stimulating Amanda
By Jonathan Kolber A doll called Amazing Amanda is causing quite a stir in the
toy industry. It does such a good job of synthesizing human
behavior that children are treating it as if the doll were
alive. Amazing Amanda can "listen, speak and show emotion." Its
reliance on a combination of technologies for speech-
recognition, radio frequency tags and scanners, and facial
robotics is causing quite a stir. This is nothing like earlier talking dolls that mindlessly
played recorded phrases when a cord was pulled. It comes
with a variety of set accessories, including "food" and
"clothing." If the doll requests one item and is given
another, it correctly identifies what it was given and
points out the mistake. Unlike most high-tech toys that are lectured at boys,
Amazing Amanda is definitely for little girls. And now
toymakers are trying a new frontier with Amazing Amanda,
convinced that it will stoke a girl's imagination, not take
its place. When you flip a hidden switch to "awaken" the
doll, it displays a humanlike yawn and begins to ask
questions in a girl's voice. In an experience that must astonish users, the doll quickly
learns to recognize its owner's voice as "mommy." Anyone
else is told, "You don't sound like Mommy." It does this by
actually storing and matching the primary user's voice
pattern. It can do this with a wide variety of languages
and dialects.
Currently, the doll will support an hour of speech,
including questions, responses, requests, and even songs
and games. Animatronics give the appearance of real
motions. Its lips even move. To learn dialects, it asks
users to repeat specific words that it then remembers and
uses for guidance. The doll is even being sold at Wal-Mart for $100, a sure
sign of its popularity. Here's what Wal-Mart has to say
about it: "Amazing Amanda is a doll like no other. In fact, she's the
closest thing to a real child that a young 'pretend mommy'
can have. By responding to voices, recognizing objects and
showing emotions with realistic facial expressions, Amazing
Amanda establishes an interactive mother-daughter bond that
is unparalleled among children's toys. · Advanced voice recognition, sensory response and
animatronics technologies
enable lifelike interaction · Amazing Amanda learns to recognize her 'mommy's' voice · She also recognizes objects such as her outfits,
toothbrush, sippy cup,
various foods and her potty · She expresses real emotions, such as smiling when happy
or pouting when
told 'no' · She engages in two-way communication with realistic
facial expressions and
toddler-speak · She can go 'potty' and can even be used to promote potty
training · She keeps track of date and time, and offers reminders of
upcoming holidays · She has an internal clock which can be used as a lovable
alarm clock, and
may help establish a normal sleeping and waking schedule
for your child · Comes with accessories, pretend food, outfits and more · She stands 18 inches tall · Requires four 'C' batteries (not included) · Amazing Amanda is recommended for children ages 4 and
up." I have a question for you: If you had read this product
description in a science fiction story in the 1970s, would
it have seemed out of place? Imagine what you'll be reading in 10 years. I've been predicting for some time that computers and
robots will seem more and more lifelike and human in the
years to come, and do so at an ever-accelerating pace. Last
year, I attended Next Fest in Chicago, where I was treated
to a display of the Philip K. Dick robot conversing with
people. Even more advanced than Amazing Amanda, this
experimental robot shows what's possible. There were
moments when, staring at its eyes, I had the impression of
watching a human being. That was, of course, an illusion. But think about it: I'm
someone who knew what I was watching and capable of
understanding key principles behind it.
How would someone less sophisticated such as a child react?
Based on what I saw in Chicago, they will tend to treat the
robotic system as a person. Now, Amazing Amanda is the vanguard of this kind of
technology moving into popular use. I predict that this
will sweep through the entertainment and, eventually,
services marketplaces. Next week, I'll be attending Next Fest again in New York
City, and I can hardly wait to see the further advances in
robotic technology. You see, the technological tidal wave
accelerates every year that passes. Progress is ever-
faster, and this means breakthroughs will more and more
resemble miracles ("Any technology sufficiently advanced is
indistinguishable from magic." - Arthur C. Clarke) Within five years, many toys will come with personalities
and intelligence. This will evolve into robots that perform
personal services, including chores. (Think of Rosie from
"The Jetsons," but far more attractively packaged.) If you want to really get a good sense of where this is all
going, grab "The Age Of Spiritual Machines" by Ray
Kurzweil. It reads like science fiction, but it's not.
Kurzweil is my favorite futurist, because he projects
current hard data and trends forward based on ample
evidence and careful assumptions. (I disagree with him on
only a few of his views, and those because I think his
assumptions on those views are incomplete.) The line between person and machine is starting to blur,
and the consequences are huge. Multiple startup companies
will arise to participate in this revolution, and we'll be
watching for them. [Joel's Note: From solar towers of power to more
attractively packaged "Rosie Robots," Jonathan Kolber is
forever reporting from the outermost limits of cutting edge
technology. It is here that he finds the most innovative,
and often most interesting, investment opportunities. Jonathan Kolber is a regular columnist for the FREE e-
letter, Penny Sleuth. To learn about advancements from the
technology frontier and the investment opportunities they
yield for early investors, visit Penny Sleuth right here: Penny Sleuth for FREE:
http://pennysleuth.com/Sub/opt.html
--- Special ---
During these 3 Shocking Events of 2006...
Join The World's Most Elite Investors This year millions of average American investors will be
wiped out... but not this elite circle of potential
investors. Introducing TWO very simple investments that will protect
you, creating a fortress of "wealth insurance" around your
portfolio... Become part of the world's most intelligent and elite
investment circle today! http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/RCH/ERCHGA01 ---------------------------- 
| 
